Macroprudential Policy and Housing Market Expectations
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
15:00-16:00 Beijing Time
Using a large-scale online survey experiment, we study the effects of changes in three borrower-based macroprudential policy tools, residential loan-to-value (LTV), debt-to-income, and buy-to-let LTV ratio, on British consumers' housing market expectations. A policy loosening generally leads to higher house price expectations, more positive sentiment about housing transactions and stock market investments, improved affordability evaluations, and a reduction in planned non-housing spending (especially for homebuyers and the young), with loosening the residential LTV ratio having the biggest impact. Perceived housing affordability deterioration is associated with perceived accelerating house price growth and increased likelihood of a financial crisis.
伊利诺伊大学香槟分校助理教授。2020年获加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济学博士学位，主要研究方向是宏观经济、预期和货币政策。其论文发表在Review of Economics and Statistics等期刊