主题：中国特色的产业转移 Relocation from China (with Chinese Characteristics)

主讲人：浙江大学 袁松研究员

主持人：hy5902海洋之神 吴季教授

时间：4月8日（周二）上午10:00-11:30

地点：西南财经大学柳林校区格致楼1211会议室

主办单位：经济与管理研究院

主讲人简介：

袁松，浙江大学经济学院百人计划研究员、博士生导师，曾在财政部金融司挂职锻炼，2022年于华威大学获得博士学位。主要研究领域为发展经济学、公共财政、世界经济、经济史，目前关注中国对外投资和基建、地方政府行为等问题。研究成果发表于Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic History, Journal of Comparative Economics等知名期刊。

内容提要：

全球政治紧张局势的加剧和贸易政策的日益频繁使用，被普遍视为对全球化的潜在威胁。这些因素是否会导致经济体的“脱钩”，或是以更复杂的方式重塑贸易伙伴之间的关系？在中美直接贸易急剧下降背景下，我们通过研究中美经济关系的最新演变来探讨这一问题。利用企业层面和产品层面的数据，我们发现，中国制造业投资和中国生产的零部件越来越多地流向那些同时增加其美国市场份额的第三方“赢家”。这表明，中国企业仍在参与重组后的供应链。我们的证据表明这一研究结果捕捉到的是中美之间不断扩大的间接联系，而非那些“赢家”自身的经济趋势。

Rising global political tensions and increasing use of trade policies are popularly seen as potential threats to globalization. Will these factors lead to the ‘decoupling’ of affected economies, or reshape relations between trade partners in more complex ways? We consider this question by studying the recent evolution of the economic relationship between China and the US, in the context of a sharp fall in direct China-US trade. Using firm-level and product-level data, we show that Chinese manufacturing investment and Chinese-produced parts have increasingly flowed to third-country ‘winners’ who have simultaneously increased their US market share. This suggests that Chinese economic actors have continued to participate in reorganized China-US supply chains. We present evidence that our findings capture expanding indirect relationships linking China and the US rather than broader economic trends within the ‘winners’ themselves.